MISO-OH OH

A few months back we wrote about how the past couple Septembers have presented ISOs with the issue of the sun going down while it remains hot.  Well this week, MISO got a scare as Wednesday called for Maximum Generation Event Step 2.  With the summer heat extended at least one more week, the rising temps put a real strain on the grid…with emphasis on  “strain on the grid”.  Looking at the notification below, loss of interchange schedules and transfer capabilities are listed as reasons for the event.  In a nutshell, MISO was planning on importing electricity from neighboring ISOs and was unable to do so.  Be it lines became too stressed and had to be derated, or generation wasn’t available, MISO found itself short of generation with imports cut.

This brings up another topic we have covered- Dynamic Line Rating (DLR).  DLR in simple terms uses real-time weather and conditions to calculate the capacity of a line instead of some baseline or worst case assumption.  MISO has adopted this, but transmission owners have a few more years to start scheduling capacity on their lines with this.

As stated above, at this time we don’t know if it was transmission line capacity issues, generation outages, or a combination.  In any case, we continue to see these sorts of alerts that only occurred on the coldest or hottest days of the winter or summer.  It’s safe to assume there is more to come.

Natural Gas Market Commentary

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The front of the forward curve remained propped up this week as a late-summer heatwave spread across most of the country. Natural gas demand from power generators remained near seasonal highs, and the prompt-month NYMEX contract tested $3.00 resistance for the first time since early July. So far, that level is holding, and the October contract continues to bounce around in the $2.90s, with the market showing some hesitancy to extend the recent rally beyond current price levels. Meanwhile, Winter 2026-27 remains on the mat, trading near multi-year lows around $3.40 per MMBtu.

Thursday’s EIA report continued the trend of the previous few weeks, with the 30-Bcf build falling short of both last year and the five-year average. The streak of relatively small injections has narrowed the storage surplus, but not to a degree that should raise major concerns about stocks heading into winter. The latest round of hot weather seems to be too little too late. Near-term conditions may be limiting downside, but so far, lingering cooling demand has not been enough to promote any serious upside.

With normal temperatures cooling quickly at this point in the season, demand will begin coming off one way or another. From here, the focus will shift squarely to the upcoming winter, and at this point the market doesn’t seem overly concerned.

Cocktail Corner

Cocktail Corner was made for weekends like Labor Day.  It’s the holiday where you stand around a party with a favorite beverage with folks you might not know, and after lamenting the “official end of summer” and discuss the mattress sale honoring the day, there’s nothing left.  Well, how about the origins of Labor Day?  It’s safe to assume everyone reading these pages understands this day is dedicated to the workers of the USA, past and present, but how did it become a day?

The day started as a protest more than a celebration.  Some of the earliest attempts at recognizing this day ended in violence.  In 1886, in what is known as the Haymarket Riot in Chicago, policemen and workers were killed in clashes.  Interestingly enough, the father of Labor Day is up for debate between two guys named McGuire and Maguire.  The first McGuire, co-founder of the AFL, suggested setting aside a day to ‘honor workers’, but some argue Maguire, who was a machinist, founded the holiday.  No need to debate, just a toast to a McGuire/Maguire….no one will know the difference.  Labor Day was signed into law making in 1894 setting aside the first Monday in September as Labor Day.

As you enjoy your cocktail this weekend, remember some folks will be out there on Labor Day selling a couch, possibly a car, and maybe even a beer.  Our favorite is the folks keeping the lights on.  While we celebrate Labor Day, at the same time it’s a verb for a lot of folks…this is the USA!

No WPO next week.  Vacation scheduled

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RT Thoughts

Speaking of Labor Day and those keeping the lights on while we all enjoy the day, we thought we’d check in with RT.  RT will be monitoring the grid and making sure things are running smoothly while hopefully finding some time to enjoy the day.  Since we haven’t heard from him we figured we’d check in, especially wondering if there’s anything on the grill?

He admitted he’d have one eye on the grill with a lemonade or sweet tea this weekend.  RT was a little bummed that he’d have to forgo smoking ribs or long cook steaks as the possible grid volatility will need his attention.  We asked what the alternative might be?  If you are a cardiologist, or in the care of one, probably no need to read beyond this point.

A twelve pack of Oscar Meyer wieners, cut to accept a chunk of Velveeta ultra processed cheese wrapped in bacon, will be held together with a toothpick and see the grill for about 7-8 minutes.

We asked about sides like potato salad or something along those lines….”no time, maybe chips”.

Well folks, as we pointed out in Cocktail Corner, while you are grilling your summer ending best meal, people like RT will take what they can get working to keep the country moving.  Thanks RT.